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000
ABNT20 KNHC 261714
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LEE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26
 the center of Lee was located near 29.9, -53.7
 with movement W at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 975 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 34

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

...LEE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 53.7W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located near
latitude 29.9 North, longitude 53.7 West. Lee is moving toward the
west near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn
northwestward on Wednesday and northward on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee could strengthen a little more before weakening likely
begins on Thursday.

Lee is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 34

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 261437
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  53.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  53.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  53.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N  53.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 34

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 261438
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images.  Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt.  Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear.  Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so.  The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease.  The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt.  The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow.  There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread.  The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 29.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 261438
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Lee Graphics


Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 14:43:43 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:22:10 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER BANKS...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 26
 the center of Maria was located near 33.8, -73.1
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 974 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 42A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, and a turn
toward the east-northeast is anticipated on Thursday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41025 located
about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).
A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape
Hatteras.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 42

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 261440
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE
HATTERAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO WEST OF OCRACOKE INLET
* NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO DUCK

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  73.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  73.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N  73.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.1N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.7N  72.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.1N  70.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.6N  63.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N  49.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 42

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 261441
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

The satellite presentation of Maria has continued to slowly degrade
over the past 24 hours, as deep convection is now confined to the
southeastern portion of the circulation.  Peak surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the
reconnaissance aircraft have been around 60 kt both overnight and
this morning, but due to sampling considerations for such a large
wind field the initial wind speed is held at 65 kt for this
advisory.  Cool waters and moderate west-northwesterly shear are
expected to cause a gradual decrease in intensity over the next
couple of days, and Maria is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
later today or tonight.  Little change in strength is expected later
in the period while Maria accelerates east-northeastward and begins
to interact with a frontal boundary over the north Atlantic.

Maria continues to move slowly northward around the western side of
a subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level ridge over the
northeastern United States to the north of Maria is likely to
keep the cyclone's forward motion slow for the next 24-36 h.  After
that time, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes
region is expected to lift Maria east-northeastward or northeastward
at an increasing forward speed.  The track guidance remains in good
agreement on the scenario but there continue to be large speed
differences after 48 hours.  The new official forecast is a little
slower than the previous one at days 3-5 to be more in line with the
various consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring some
direct impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast through
Wednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning
and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 33.6N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 34.3N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 35.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 35.7N  72.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 36.1N  70.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 37.6N  63.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 42.5N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 261441
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  3   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  4   7(11)   5(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  4   8(12)   5(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  5   8(13)   5(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5   9(14)   6(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  6  11(17)   5(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  8  13(21)   5(26)   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 30  18(48)   5(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  8   7(15)   4(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 13  10(23)   5(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 10   9(19)   4(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  5   5(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 17:48:01 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:28:25 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:13:27 GMT

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:20:53 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 14:43:25 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  1139 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  223 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017